Against the weaker 2020 numbers that reflected a European economy shaken by the first Covid-19 wave, the new figures conducted by GfK for the retail sector in Europe show an overall better situation for retailers. The 2021 European retail study sees retail sales increase significantly by 6.8 percent compared to 2020. GfK found the highest growth rates in smaller Eastern European countries such as Lithuania (up 17 percent), Slovenia (up 16 percent) and Estonia (up 13 percent). According to the market analysts, larger markets such as France, Spain and Italy also all recorded retail growth rates of over 7 percent.
Split up into key indicators, the nominal purchasing power of EU citizens grew by an average of 2.4 percent in 2021, with Norway leading the list (over 8 percent plus) and the purchasing power of citizens in Croatia and the Czech Republic growing by over 5 percent. Despite lockdowns and access restrictions, the retail sector in the EU increased its share of private consumer spending to 35.8 percent. Compared to 2019, before the pandemic, this means retailers gained 3.1 percentage points of the overall spending.
Regionally, GfK sees a clear urban-rural contrast, especially in the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, Sweden and Switzerland. In these states, the online-savvy population tends to be found in large cities and metropolitan areas, while the rural population tends to focus on brick-and-mortar retail. In Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium and the U.K., higher index values are sometimes found in smaller municipalities.
After inflation already was 2.9 percent in 2021, EU-wide inflation is expected to rise to 6.8 percent in 2022 due to high energy prices and the war in Ukraine. The price increase is particularly significant in many Eastern European countries. For example, consumer prices in Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Poland are expected to grow at double-digit rates.
Augmented or VR-shopping (like in the metaverse) still plays a minor role in the EU, the German-speaking countries (that are big in purchasing power) being particularly late in adopting this trend.
