The casual segment of the so-called brown shoe market rose by 6.8 percent in U.S. dollars at the wholesale level worldwide last year, reaching an estimated level of $12.6 billion, with increases of 1.8 percent in the U.S. to $3.8 billion and 9.1 percent in the rest of the world to $8.7 billion, according to an exclusive annual survey by Shoe Intelligence and Sporting Goods Intelligence.
Comparatively, the international athletic footwear market rose by only 5.4 percent in 2008 to $31.2 billion, declining by 0.4 percent in the U.S. and rising by 9.6 percent in the rest of the world. The outdoor segment of the brown shoe market performed the best, rising by 7.4 percent globally to $2.9 billion, up by 1.3 percent in the U.S. and by 12.5 percent elsewhere.
The two segments of the brown shoe market are illustrated by the charts in the next page, which show the performance of the various groups and brands in each segment. The higher rates of increase outside the U.S. should be mostly attributed to the 6.3 percent decline in the average value of the dollar against the euro in 2008, but also in part to the fact that the economic recession hit the U.S. before affecting the rest of the world.
Our estimates are based on published documents and on indications by company executives about their relative performance in the U.S., which remains the world’s largest market, and elsewhere. They concern only footwear, to the exclusion of other products. We continue to use the U.S. dollar as a reference because it still is the currency most used in Far East sourcing and international transactions. Conversions to U.S. dollars are based on the average value of the euro and other currencies at the average rate in the course of each year. Some estimates have been restated from the values that we had estimated one year ago.
We have already analyzed the athletic and outdoor footwear markets in two other business newsletters of ours, the European edition of Sporting Goods Intelligence and The Outdoor Industry Compass. The athletic market was affected by the problems of former stand-outs such as Crocs and Heelys and by the zero growth rates of athletic footwear companies such as Puma and Skechers, whose collections have a stronglifestyle orientation. Within the outdoor category, Merrell continued to lead the pack, showing above-average growth, but more technical brands such as Salomon and major innovators such as Keen progressed much faster.
The stronger brands are getting stronger in the so-called lifestyle casual footwear market, which is still led by Clarks, followed by Geox and by ECCO. Together, these three brands now have 49.7 percent of the total world market in this comfort-oriented segment. Several important brands that stand for “eurocomfort” were severely affected by the U.S. recession last year, our research has shown.
The so-called fashion casual brands performed better in the U.S., where Ugg is likely to overtake Timberland as the leader this year. Timberland has 18.5 percent of this more fragmented fashion-oriented market segment at the international level, and while its sales are not growing anymore, it will remain by far the global leader thanks to a balanced presence in both the U.S. and abroad. Generally, all the other major players are strong either in the U.S. or in Europe, indicating strong potential for further growth in one or the other market. Steve Madden, which is No. 3 on this chart, is beginning to make some strides internationally, but it still has a long way to go.
The highest sales increase on our chart was recorded by Superga, the iconic Italian brand recently acquired by BasicNet. We could add here many new Italian brands of fashion sneakers such as Dolce & Gabbana, D.A.T.E. and Serafini, which are showing very high growth rates at the moment. While the relative fragmentation of this market favors their expansion, we understand that they are still very marginal.
