According to the most recent IMRG Capgemini Online Retail Index, the post-pandemic retail climate is, at last, taking shape. Online sales for the 200-odd retailers tracked by the index are down by 12 percent year-on-year for April. As IMRG puts it, this is a significant improvement from March’s year-on-year fall of 25.7 percent but far from a return to pre-pandemic business. Still, month-on-month growth was up by 3.8 percent. The three-, six- and 12-month averages are 21.9, -17.5 and -13.3 percent, respectively.
April, the British association says, is the first month in two years not to be “skewed” by lockdowns or other pandemic-related government measures. Last April saw growth in online sales of 12 percent. Sales figures for the month’s fourth week were up by 10 percent last year, down by 10 percent this year.
As for categories, apparel, in general, is up by 4.2 percent year-on-year for April. Last year’s comparable figure was 51.4 percent. Meanwhile, the average basket value (ABV) reached a historical peak of £146 (€170) in April, eclipsing the previous record, of August 2021, by £3.
In IMRG’s estimation, with supply-chain tangles and inflation both raising prices, British shoppers are seeking bang for their buck and taking their time to make purchases. In response, retailers are resorting to discounts, especially for “smaller goods.” The current ABV, it believes, suggests that shoppers are still willing to buy big-ticket items but are also buying in bulk.
“After two years of huge volume increases online,” says IMRG’s director of strategy & insight, Andy Mulcahy, “it would seem that growth is now over. […] The new phase of higher costs and bills is creating very unpredictable patterns of behaviour” in U.K. shoppers.
For Lucy Gibbs, Capgemini’s senior manager and retail lead for analytics & AI, “it is clear that shifting priorities around new cost pressures and economic factors will also influence future demand patterns. […] Clothing is approximately in line with where we would expect, picking up after losing out in the pandemic.”
The IMRG Capgemini Online Retail Index was established in April 2000.
