RBC’s twin notes reward adidas for three years of beating guidance and penalize Nike for a turnaround the analyst no longer expects to inflect in 2026. With both companies holding capital markets days this fall, the burden of proof has shifted from Herzogenaurach to Beaverton.
One analyst, one bank, two opposite verdicts. On June 10, RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania upgraded adidas to Outperform and cut Nike to Sector Perform. The twin notes formalize a widening split in sportswear equities, published on the eve of the FIFA World Cup.
One framework, two verdicts
For adidas, Dadhania raised the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform, reversing RBC’s January downgrade that flagged fiscal 2026 guidance risk. He raised the price target to €210 from €170 and forecast 25 percent EPS growth over three years versus an 11 percent coverage average. He also said the shares trade at about 13x estimated FY2027 earnings, a 13 percent discount to Western sporting goods peers, and cited a track record of results consistently beating company guidance since FY2023.
For Nike, the case is the mirror image. Dadhania cut Nike to Sector Perform from Outperform and lowered the price target to $50 from $70, a 28 percent reduction. He also trimmed FY2027 and FY2028 EPS estimates by 9 percent and 13 percent, leaving RBC about 2 percent below consensus in both years. In a downside scenario, he puts fair value at roughly $34 – $38 per share if the stock’s valuation normalized to the sector-average multiple.
The reasoning is symmetrical. adidas earns the upgrade for what Dadhania calls “healthy forward order visibility” tied to a direct-to-consumer-led revenue mix. Nike loses its rating because the recovery under Chief Executive Elliott Hill is, in Dadhania’s words, “slower and narrower than we were anticipating.” Near-term catalysts, from event-linked demand to inventory normalization, are not enough in his view to drive a sustained revenue inflection in calendar 2026.
The competitive detail in the Nike note will resonate beyond the trading desk. In running, newer entrants are increasingly shaping price architecture. In women’s apparel, premium positioning has shifted toward more lifestyle-led brands. The pricing power Nike once defined is now distributed across challengers.
The rest of the Street leans the same way
RBC was not alone this week. Citi maintained its Neutral rating on Nike but lowered its price target to $47 from $53, citing concerns that near-term consensus estimates remain too optimistic. On the adidas side, Bernstein SocGen trimmed its target to $132.50 from $137.91 on the ADR line while keeping its Outperform rating – a minor adjustment that leaves the bullish stance intact.
Two capital markets days, one burden of proof
The numbers behind the sentiment gap are stark. RBC estimates Nike shares have declined about 50 percent since Hill’s appointment in October 2024, while adidas gained around 70 percent over a comparable period following its own CEO transition.
Both companies now face the same test in sequence: Nike reports fourth-quarter results on June 30, adidas follows on July 30, and both have flagged capital markets days for autumn – adidas in September, with insight expected into its 2027 product pipeline, and Nike in the fall.
