The U.S. Supreme Court has set November 5 as the date for oral arguments on the group of lawsuits opposing the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs. However, key sourcing countries are already feeling the impact.
Mid-September, Gen. D. filed a brief defending the tariffs, which came 10 days after the court agreed to hear the tariff challenges. On Sept. 3, the administration asked the court to take up the case after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld the Court of International Trade’s ruling on Aug. 29 that the tariffs exceeded Trump’s power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Several challenges have been merged into one lawsuit, including one from a consortium of small businesses and another from 12 states. The challengers must file their briefs by October 20. In addition to the more esoteric legal arguments over the IEEPA, Sauer’s brief on the merits veered into hyperbole. According to Scotus Blog, it claimed that “the President and his Cabinet officials have determined that the tariffs are promoting peace and unprecedented economic prosperity, and that the denial of tariff authority would expose our nation to trade retaliation without effective defenses and thrust America back to the brink of economic catastrophe.”
Round of tariffs could cut Vietnam’s U.S.-bound exports by one-fifth
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that a United Nations Development Program report shows the August round of tariffs could cut Vietnam’s U.S.-bound exports by one-fifth. The first Vietnamese data to emerge since the tariffs took effect show a 2 percent sequential decline in U.S. exports from July to August. The figures include a 5.5 percent dip in footwear exports following a surge in pull-forward orders in July. The UNDP’s worst-case extrapolations from these trends suggest that Vietnam, the world’s second-largest footwear supplier, would be hardest hit by the August levies in Southeast Asia, with a projected 19.2 percent decline in U.S. exports far exceeding the regional average of 9.7 percent.
However, the Vietnam estimates do not include the 40 percent tariff on transshipped goods passing through the country. They also exclude the current exemption for consumer electronics, a category accounting for 28 percent of U.S.-bound exports. If the exemption continues, Vietnam would see a 13.2 percent decrease. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the UNDP expects Thailand to decline by 12.7 percent, Malaysia to drop by 10.4 percent, and Indonesia to dip by 6.4 percent.
India: 22 % decline in US exports
According to the Global Trade and Research Initiative, the 50 percent levy imposed on India is putting significant pressure on the country’s U.S. exports. The firm found that exempt categories, such as smartphones, are still taking a hit. The firm noted a 22.2 percent decline in U.S. exports from May to August, worsening sequentially as the tariffs increased from 10 percent through August 6, to 25 percent through August 27, to the current 50 percent rate. According to the Times of India, tariff-exempt products—about 29 percent of August exports—saw a 42 percent drop, from $3.37 billion in May to $1.96 billion in August.
Within that period, exports of textiles, garments, and accessories were down nine percent, to $855.5 million. Apparel was down 14 percent, with knitted apparel down 7 percent and non-knitted apparel down 22 percent.
