China’s GDP appears to have shrunk from the first to the second quarter of this year. The 2.6 percent decline was steeper than the 1.5 percent decline predicted in a poll of financial analysts conducted by Reuters. China itself, in the statement issued by its National Bureau of Statistics, says that major economic indicators “plunged” in April and “narrowed” in May, while June “registered a stable recovery, and the second quarter achieved positive growth.”
At constant prices, the bureau reports, GDP for the first half rose by 2.5 percent year-on-year to 56,264.2 billion yuan renminbi (€8,133.43bn). The rise in GDP for the second quarter – when the government placed the financial and political capitals of Shanghai and Beijing under strict lockdowns – was significantly lower, at 0.4 percent year-on-year, to CNY 29,246.4 billion (€4,229.33bn). This could make the second quarter China’s slowest since the present government began releasing figures. The government’s target for annual growth, 5.5 percent, seems, in consequence, to be receding out of reach. A Reuters poll has forecast growth of 4 percent.
Retail sales of consumer goods were down year-on-year by 0.7 percent for the first half but fell by 4.6 percent for Q2. The nadir came in April, with a drop of 11.1 percent. Perhaps not coincidentally, online sales for the half rose by 3.1 percent to CNY 6,300.7 billion (€910.34bn).
The combined value of imports and exports of goods for the half was CNY 19,802.2 billion (€2,878.51bn), up by 9.4 percent year-on-year. The trade balance showed a surplus of CNY 2,481.2 billion (€360.45bn).
Chinese real estate has been suffering as well. For the year’s first half, real estate development was down by 5.4 percent, floor space sold in commercial buildings was down by 22.2 percent, and total sales of commercial buildings were down by 28.9 percent.
Photo: Hanny Naibaho, Unsplash
