Holiday retail sales are set to grow more slowly in 2025 despite the accelerating role of artificial intelligence, according to Salesforce. The company forecasts $1.25 trillion in global online sales for November and December, a 4 percent increase year-over-year, with the U.S. market rising 2.1 percent to $288 billion.

AI and digital agents are expected to drive 21 percent of global Holiday orders, worth $263 billion, underscoring how quickly tools like ChatGPT are entering the shopping journey. Salesforce said traffic from AI assistants rose 119 percent in the first half of 2025, with conversion rates more than 700 percent higher than social media and 200 percent above traditional search. Trust in AI recommendations has increased to 86 percent, up from 46 percent in May.

Optimization for Gen AI search is crucial 

For retailers, this points to a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and purchase products. Salesforce advises optimizing product listings and messaging for generative AI search, now described as “generative engine optimization.” Nearly half of consumers using AI in shopping say they are open to having an agent make purchases on their behalf.

Other trends shaping Holiday 2025 include:

  • Resale growth: $64 billion in expected resale sales, with 46 percent of consumers planning to gift a pre-owned item.

  • Gen Z in-store shift: Three in four Gen Z shoppers will shop in stores this season, spending $3 in-store for every $1 online.

  • Promotions: Retailers are expected to scale back discounting, with 2 percent fewer orders placed using promotional codes, in response to higher supply chain costs.

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