China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion as exports surge despite tariffs

China’s trade surplus in goods exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs. The milestone represents a historic high, surpassing the $993 billion surplus recorded for all of 2024.

Exports climbed 5.9 percent year-on-year in November to $330.3 billion, while imports rose just under 2 percent to $218.6 billion. For the first 11 months of the year, exports increased 5.4 percent to $3.4 trillion, while imports declined 0.6 percent to $2.3 trillion.

The Wall Street Journal described the figure as “never before seen in recorded economic history,” highlighting how it “underscores the dominance” China has achieved across product categories from high-end electric vehicles to basic consumer goods.

Trade diversification amid US tensions

Chinese exports to the US plunged 29 percent year-on-year in November, even as overall exports grew 5.9 percent. However, China has successfully redirected shipments to other markets. For the year to date, exports to Africa surged 26 percent, Southeast Asia rose 14 percent, and Latin America increased 7.1 percent. In November, Chinese shipments to the EU surged 15 percent year-on-year, while exports to Southeast Asia climbed 8.2 percent.

“The role of trade rerouting in offsetting the drag from US tariffs still appears to be increasing,” Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. US tariffs on Chinese imports currently average around 37 percent, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Centre. A year-long trade truce between China and the US was reached in late October in South Korea, with the U.S. lowering tariffs and China halting export controls on rare earths.

Future outlook and global implications

Morgan Stanley predicts China’s share of global goods exports will reach 16.5 percent by 2030, up from roughly 15 percent currently, driven by advanced manufacturing capabilities in electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.

“It is so big that it’s obvious that it’s not just the United States or Europe but the whole world that will have to fund that gap,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told the Wall Street Journal.

The trajectory has raised concerns in Europe, where traditional strengths in automobiles, technology, and luxury goods face pressure from Chinese competitors. French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the continent could be forced to act if Beijing didn’t take measures to curb its advantage.

About China’s trade position

China emerged from a poor agrarian economy in the late 1970s to become the world’s second-largest economy. Its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001 marked a pivotal turning point, providing guaranteed access to major global markets and dramatically accelerating export growth—China’s share of global exports rose from around 4 percent in 2001 to over 15 percent today.