Nike stake surge sparks turnaround debate amid sales headwinds

Fragasso Financial Advisors substantially increased its Nike stake, boosting its holding to 28,174 shares after purchasing an additional 24,903 shares, filings show. Several other smaller institutional investors also added positions in recent quarters. Institutional investors as a group now own roughly 64 per cent of Nike’s stock. Nike’s share price has been volatile recently, opening at $67.17 (€64) on Wednesday. The company is now worth around $99 billion (€94bn), and its shares have ranged between $52.28 (€50) and $82.44 (€79) over the past year.

Revenue growth and dividend increase

Nike’s revenue grew slightly in its September quarter and earnings beat expectations. Analysts expect earnings of about $2.05 (€1.96) per share for the current year. The company also increased its quarterly dividend to $0.41 (€0.39) per share, which will be paid on 2 January to shareholders registered by 1 December.

Activist investor involvement intensifies scrutiny

The surge in targeted purchases comes amid a broader investor debate about Nike’s near-term outlook and strategic direction. Reuters reporting earlier this year highlighted renewed investor interest following William Ackman’s Pershing Square re-entry in 2024 and subsequent increases to that stake into early 2025 – moves that market participants said could amplify scrutiny on management and strategy. Pershing Square originally returned to Nike with a small position in mid-2024 and, according to a Q4 2025 filing, expanded its holding to roughly 18.8m shares by February 2025. Market analysts have viewed Ackman’s involvement as a potential catalyst for change, even where his stake size has varied.

Sales softness and leadership transition

That scrutiny is set against material operational headwinds. Nike has experienced meaningful sales softness: analysts warned of the steepest quarterly sales drop since the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2024 and expected substantial EPS contraction, whilst management turnover brought Elliott Hill to the chief executive role in October as the company began implementing a “Win Now” strategy focused on core sports and major city markets. Reuters also emphasized that rebuilding momentum will likely require multiple quarters to refresh product assortments, repair retailer relationships and work through discounted inventory. Barclays and other houses have cautioned that a meaningful recovery may not materialise until the latter half of fiscal 2026.

Marketing investment amid recovery challenges

Management has responded with increased investment in marketing and product development, including accelerated launches such as updated Pegasus and Vomero running lines and partnerships intended to broaden appeal. Reuters analysis published on 17 December 2025 noted a substantial marketing ramp-up, marketing spend expected to exceed $5 billion (€4.8bn) in 2026, and strategic tie-ups such as collaborations with SKIMS and sustainability initiatives. 

Yet most analysts say these moves are unlikely to drive immediate earnings recovery given the need to clear discounted inventory and absorb higher input costs and tariffs, and some broker forecasts expect another quarter of profit decline.