HSBC revised EBIT estimates for PUMA upward by around 8% for 2027–28, arguing that Anta Sports’ entry as a strategic shareholder will accelerate a DTC-led repositioning in China. Regulatory approval of the stake acquisition is expected by end-2026.
PUMA climbed about 3 percent on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Tuesday, reaching about €28.80, after HSBC upgraded the German sportswear group from Hold to Buy and raised its price target from €26 to €35. The move put PUMA among the session’s top performers on both the MDAX and the STOXX 600.
The upgrade hinges on a single strategic wager: that Anta Sports’ entry as a major shareholder will give PUMA the operational architecture it has lacked in China. We examined this dynamic in our latest webinar with Hot Pot China, available to watch on demand here.
HSBC lifted its EBIT forecasts for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 by an average of about 8%. Analysts said China-driven growth should become visible toward the end of 2027, provided regulatory clearances are granted on schedule.
The Anta playbook analysts think can work here
The bull case depends not just on the 29% stake, but on what Anta is expected to do with it. HSBC analysts pointed to Anta’s track record of intervening operationally in global brands, most recently with the Amer Sports portfolio, which includes Salomon and Wilson, and earlier with FILA in China. In both cases, Anta rebuilt distribution and repositioned the brand in China rather than leaving execution to existing management.
For PUMA, HSBC said the first phase of the collaboration would be a shift toward a more tightly controlled retail and digital model in China, positioning it as the primary lever to strengthen the brand in the market. Analysts argued the market is underpricing both the scale of that change and the growth it could generate.
That view gained institutional backing earlier in the week, when Citigroup also issued a Buy rating on PUMA, citing the same partnership logic. The two major-bank upgrades in quick succession represent a meaningful convergence of institutional sentiment around the China thesis. RBC Capital maintained a Hold as recently as last week, a reminder that the bull case remains contested.
2026 will be a bridge year, not yet a breakout
Both banks are asking investors to look through the current year. HSBC was explicit: 2026 remains a transition period for PUMA, marked by continued inventory reduction, a pullback from lower-margin wholesale activities, and sustained cost discipline. The bank forecast second-quarter sales below first-quarter levels before a recovery in the second half of the year. The near-term drag is the cost of the repositioning; the upgrade is a forward bet on what lies beyond it.
The unresolved variable
Analysts’ projected growth timeline depends on a condition not yet met: regulatory approval of Anta’s stake acquisition. Until that clearance lands, the retail overhaul, revised channel architecture and China earnings revisions underpinning the €35 price target remain assumptions, not commitments.
