Adobe forecasts US retailers will capture $23.8 billion in online sales from July 8–11 during the Prime Day event, marking a 28.4 percent increase year-over-year, and nearly doubling a typical Black Friday weekend — with 52.5 percent of orders via mobile devices — reaching $12.5 billion in sales this year.
Spanning 18 product categories, Adobe expects discounts between 10 percent and 24 percent, with apparel seeing the deepest markdowns at 24 percent (vs. 20 percent last year). Notably, sports and outdoor gear will receive 10 percent off on average, slightly below last year’s 11 percent discount, while electronics could see up to 22 percent off. The holiday-style sale is expected to drive consumers toward higher-end items: top-tier product sales could jump 32 percent in sporting goods, while electronics may see a 52 percent increase.
Adobe also predicts a strong early back-to-school push, with categories like backpacks (+225%) and kids’ apparel (+200%) soaring above June averages. Other segments include computers (+140%) and headphones (+150%).
Generative AI-driven traffic is projected to surge by 3,200 percent year-over-year during Prime Day, as shoppers increasingly rely on AI tools for deal discovery. Additionally, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to reach $1.8–1.9 billion, making up 8 percent of online sales – a jump from last year’s 7.6 percent.
Purchases made on mobile devices are expected to hit record levels, at an estimated $12.5 billion, or 52.5% of online sales. Mobile shopping is a growth driver because more impulse purchases are made on mobile devices, Adobe reports.
