According to a new independent study, titled Climate Change and the Climate Reliability of Hosts in the Second Century of the Winter Olympic Games, as long as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are reduced or stabilized, every region of the world that has already hosted the Olympic Winter Games should still be able to do so until at least the 2050s. On the other hand, under a high-emissions scenario, by the 2080s the majority of locations studied would be too warm.
The report, defined by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) as “the most comprehensive study on the subject to date,” is signed by Robert Steiger of the University of Innsbruck and Daniel Scott of the University of Waterloo, Canada. The IOC commissioned the study to make informed decisions about future Games. The scientists assessed the future climate reliability of former Olympic Winter Games hosts and potential new host regions not considered in previous academic studies about the future of Olympic hosting. They also reviewed the existing studies about the impact of climate change on hosting the Olympic Winter Games in the future.
Specifically, the study examined the climate reliability of 93 locations to host Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games snow sports. It found that under a more probable mid-range emission scenario, 52 locations remain climate-reliable for the Winter Games in the 2050s and 46 in the 2080s. Researchers also highlighted that scheduling the event in March puts it at higher risk, with only 22 climate-reliable locations in the 2050s and 16 in the 2080s.
In 2024, the world surpassed the 1.5°C dangerous global warming threshold set out in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Mountain temperatures in regions with reliable observations have increased at an average pace of 0.3°C per decade, representing a significant challenge for winter sports.
