Two deals in two days – one with the ATP Tour via TDI, one with Genius Sports covering Serie A and Liga MX streaming – confirm that prediction markets are beginning to carve a slice from the same rights pie that sportsbooks have dominated since 2015. The commercial and regulatory boundaries separating broadcast, streaming and wagering are under pressure from all sides, and the current architecture may not hold.
On Aug. 3 prediction market platform Polymarket became the Official Prediction Market Provider of the ATP Tour, through a deal with Tennis Data Innovations (TDI). The financial terms are undisclosed. A joint venture between ATP Tour Inc. and ATP Media Holdings Limited, TDI manages the tour’s data and streaming rights.
The agreement gives Polymarket exclusive streaming rights within the prediction market category to all ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour matches, main draw and qualifying, singles and doubles – that is, to some 20,000 matches a season. Registered US users will be able to watch matches live on the Polymarket app while trading on them (Sportcal).
The package covers such non-major events as Indian Wells, the Miami Open, the Cincinnati Open and the Nitto ATP Finals but excludes the four Grand Slams, which sit outside ATP governance, and women’s tennis, which is governed by the WTA (Casino Beats). Sportradar, TDI’s exclusive distribution partner, will be supplying the real-time data and odds behind settlement (Sportcal).
The real news
The day after news broke of the ATP deal, Genius Sports announced its own agreement with Polymarket, adding exclusive US streaming rights and league IP for a set of competitions (Serie A among them) to the data and integrity services it already supplies.
Genius frames this as an expansion, not a new relationship. It has been working with Polymarket since at least mid-May, when it began supplying official data for Polymarket’s Serie A partnership. In June it was party also to Polymarket’s deal with Liga MX. Both of these deals concerned data and settlement only. Streaming is new – from Polymarket’s perspective.
Genius has held these streaming rights for years but been selling them into a different channel. BetVision, its interactive live-betting product, launched with the NFL and rolled out to FanDuel in November 2023, well before Polymarket entered the picture. The Serie A streaming rights extended to Polymarket this week date to August 2025, when Genius signed an exclusive deal with Lega Serie A.
What changed on Aug. 4 was not the rights themselves but the buyer. The same official data and streaming package that sportsbooks have paid for since the 2010s is now being sold, separately, to a prediction market.
The evolving pie
Prediction markets are, for now, an infinitesimal slice of the rights pie in sports. In fact, their slice appears to have been carved out of the slice that has hitherto belonged to sportsbooks. The rest of the pie consists of ticketing, broadcast rights, sponsorship and naming rights, merchandising and licensing, and sportsbook data and streaming rights.
The last of these became a distinct, licensed category as recently as 2015, when Sportradar struck its first major official league data deals – with NASCAR, the NFL, and the NHL. Prediction-market rights date to the NHL’s dual Kalshi-Polymarket deal, struck in October 2025.
The ATP-Polymarket deal has not opened a new revenue pipe. Rather, it put a tiny tap on the decade-old sportsbooks pipe.
The seam
One open question is how the plumbing will evolve for sports revenue streams that stem from rights. Another is how long the distinction will last between broadcast and streaming.
Prediction markets must remain legally separate from sportsbooks if they hope to keep doing business in the US, at least as things now stand (see SGI Europe’s recent article, “Prediction markets – The legal war”). Sportsbooks have been streamers for a few years now, and at least one prediction market is now itself a streamer. On top of this, broadcasters are becoming streamers.
Displayers of sports on screens to spectators are in general either streaming already or moving toward streaming. Such is the technical reality. Leagues and others, though, have so far maintained separate exclusivities for streaming and broadcast. The revenues are forking through what might soon be a legal fiction.
This past February, the Media Bureau of the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) opened a public docket to seek comment on broadcasting practices as live sport shifts away from actual airwaves and pay-TV distribution to streaming and subscription platforms. It is asking how exclusive and non-exclusive rights arrangements affect consumer access (Subscription Insider).
In March, the consultancy L.E.K. released a report on the war over streaming rights, noting that leagues are carving media rights into more, smaller packages to reach a wider set of bidders, even as exclusivity remains, in the firm’s words, a core principle of how those rights are sold.
Bloomberg Law’s antitrust practice has gone further, framing the current wave of league consolidation and direct-to-consumer moves as a test case for how competition law will treat exclusivity in digital markets generally, sports or otherwise.
Meanwhile streaming’s weekly viewing time is approaching parity with that of linear television, worldwide, and has already overtaken it in some European markets (RegenSports). It’s only a matter of time before most of a broadcast right’s audience is watching a stream. The regulatory and commercial separation of “broadcast rights” from “streaming rights,” and their differing price, will then be out of date.
