Two upgrades, two holds, and a cluster of conflicting data readings ahead of VF Corp’s fiscal fourth-quarter results on May 20. Analysts agree that Vans is the decisive variable.
VF Corp reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on May 20. Six analysts have published their positions ahead of the call. They don’t agree.
In the days before the report, two firms upgraded VF’s stock. Williams Trading moved from Sell to Buy – a rare double upgrade – and raised its price target to $19 from $14. BTIG lifted its rating to Buy from Neutral with a $23 target. Both cited the same reason: early signs that Vans is turning around, according to analyst notes reported by SGB Executive. The stock was trading at $16.68.
That is where the agreement ends.
Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser focused on one product: the LX Old Skool Pearlized Pack, a roughly $100 sneaker that has sold out repeatedly and traded above retail on resale platform StockX. He sees it as evidence that Vans can return to sales growth by the back-to-school shopping season later this year.
His upgrade, though, comes with conditions. He described VF’s fiscal 2028 operating margin target of 10 percent as unrealistic, and warned that Timberland could see sales turn negative by late fiscal 2027. The issue, in his view, is concentration: the brand has become heavily reliant on a single product, the 6-inch Wheat Boot.
BTIG analyst Janine Stichter took a broader approach. Her team used consumer surveys alongside web traffic, search trends, and credit card data. The conclusion: Vans’ brand perception has improved meaningfully over the past two years.
She also pointed to the scale of the reset. Vans revenue, which peaked at about $4.2 billion in fiscal 2022, is expected to stabilize around $2.2 billion by fiscal 2026, according to Investing.com analysis. That lower base, she argued, creates room for more sustainable growth. The recovery, however, is likely to be gradual – not a sharp rebound.
At Citi Research, Paul Lejuez maintained a Hold rating and trimmed his price target to $19 from $20. Any disappointment in forward guidance, particularly if management signals a slower path back to growth, could quickly undermine the recent upgrade case.
Two more firms sit between those poles. Needham reiterated its Buy rating at a $25 target, framing Vans as a sentiment-driven story where a credible recovery narrative could move the stock ahead of hard financial proof. Telsey Advisory Group kept its Market Perform rating at $20, emphasizing the same uncertainty: the timing of a Vans recovery remains unclear.
Both also pointed to The North Face as the quiet engine of VF’s business. The brand has delivered solid momentum, supported by a strong winter season and growth in higher-priced products. It has become VF’s largest revenue contributor as Vans has contracted. Yet the performance is not driving the share price. For investors, Vans remains the test.
That creates a specific problem for Wednesday’s call. VF’s guidance points to another decline at Vans in the fourth quarter, following recent double-digit drops. CEO Bracken Darrell, who joined in 2023, has yet to provide a detailed timeline for when the brand returns to sustained growth.
