As GLP-1 adoption reaches 23 percent of U.S. households, the consumer spending it generates bypasses athletic footwear. Wells Fargo’s double downgrade on Nike and Deckers Brands reflects a category-level problem that individual brand strategy cannot easily fix.
Wells Fargo downgraded Nike and Deckers Brands, arguing that rapid adoption of GLP‑1 weight-loss drugs is shifting consumer spending away from athletic footwear and toward size-sensitive apparel.
Nike was cut to Equal Weight from Overweight, with its price target lowered to $45 from $55. Deckers, parent of HOKA and UGG, was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight, with a target of $90, down from $115.
The call, led by analyst Ike Boruchow, draws on a proprietary survey of about 1,000 consumers showing GLP‑1 users spend more than 40% more per year on apparel than nonusers.
Wells Fargo says the incremental demand is concentrated in categories tied to body-size changes, including denim, casualwear, and intimates, rather than footwear, where sizing shifts are more limited.
The firm estimates this has already boosted U.S. apparel sales by about 1% in 2024 and about 1.2% in 2025, and expects the impact to keep building through 2027.
Third-party data highlights the scale. Circana reports that 23% of U.S. households had at least one GLP‑1 user as of September 2025, with 55% of active users already buying new clothing or footwear because their sizes changed.
Wells Fargo’s broader view: GLP‑1 adoption is expanding apparel demand, but steering it toward body-change categories, leaving footwear structurally exposed.
