Who’s hot, and who’s not? For the 17th time, the survey company Stifel presented its Back-to-School Athletic Footwear Survey. In the survey, Stifel visits and calls 110 well-known US stores in a handful of top retailers, including Dick’s, Academy, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs and Hibbett to collect data around which the most popular brands and models of athletic footwear that boys and girls choose to wear when they come back to the schoolyards.
In this year’s survey, the interviewed stores held Nike as the sneaker winner. However, the Swoosh brand fell by 26.8 points to 61.4 percent, the lowest score since 2018. Numbers two and three on the sneaker throne are gaining momentum and approaching Nike. In second place, New Balance, with 15.5 percent of the panel, up 7.8 percentage points from the prior year, pushing the brand past Adidas, which hit 13.6 percent, up by 13.1 points. Like Nike, the German brand is far below its previous heights of 30 percent in 2017. Vans took a 2.7 percent share, up 2.2 points, though the heat was concentrated in its heritage California market. The remainder of brands accounted for just 6.8 percent.
Stifel points to Nike’s over-indexing of retro court styles for the decline, tracking a shift in consumer preference from color-neutral court shoes to broad colorways, terrace styles, and comfort-oriented “dad shoes.” Nike held its lead in the eroding court style with the Dunk, referenced in 52 percent of checks compared to 30 percent last year. It also took the top spot from Air Force 1, which fell to 39 percent from 62 percent. Stifel reported excess Air Force 1 inventory at some retailers as pandemic-related scarcity gave way to tepid demand once inventories hit otherwise healthy levels.
Adidas got a boost from the rising terrace trend, where its Samba rocketed to mentions in 39 percent of stores from 4 percent last year. Stifel opined, however, that the dominance of the terrace leaves the Three Stripes vulnerable to future trend shifts. New Balance posted growth at all retailers, led by the 9060, 2002, and 1906, which all picked up double-digit gains. Asics’ move into the “dad shoe” realm, particularly with the GEL-1130, resonated with young consumers, topping the most popular brand in 3.2 percent of stores. On and Hoka’s rise in the performance space didn’t translate as well to lifestyle-minded young BTS shoppers in mall retailers.
On Running got mentions from 8 percent of stores compared to 3 percent in the prior year, though these were concentrated at Dick’s locations (36 percent compared to 12 percent). Hoka registered with 6 percent of checks, up 1 point, also concentrated at Dick’s.
Outside of the “most popular” reference rankings, Nike held the top of total brand reference frequency at 91 percent. However, the rest of the portfolio slipped as Jordan fell from the second spot to fourth at 34 percent, losing ground to Adidas and New Balance at 52 percent and 44 percent, respectively. Converse dipped 1 point to 4 percent. Asics pulled the most dramatic shift, moving into the top 5 with an 11-point gain to 12 percent from 1 percent.
Stifel’s Back-to-School Athletic Footwear Survey
To assess trends in the U.S., Stifel’s footwear analyst team annually visits and calls 110 US stores to gather data on the popularity of athletic footwear styles across boys and girls. This is done two times per year. First, during spring, around the time of the NBA All-Star (AS) game. Then, Stifel also surveys during the BTS (Back To School) period. Stores surveyed include Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy Sports + Outdoor, Foot Locker, Finish Line, Champs and Hibbett Sports.
