Competition in the global running footwear market is intensifying, according to analysts at Evercore ISI, who say Nike and On are stepping up efforts in categories that have driven HOKA’s rapid growth. The note comes ahead of Deckers Brands’ first quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release, scheduled for after market close on July 23.
Evercore said in a note to investors that competition in running is heating up “significantly,” pointing to Nike’s upcoming innovation pipeline and a more aggressive approach by Swiss sportswear company On. The analysts believe Nike’s Spring 2027 lineup targets the highly cushioned running segment, an area that has been a core strength for HOKA over the past several years.
Running has become one of the most closely watched categories in the sportswear industry. Nike remains the world’s largest athletic brand, but challengers such as HOKA and On have gained substantial market share through performance driven innovation and premium positioning. HOKA, owned by Deckers Brands, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the running boom, drawing both recreational and competitive runners with its maximal cushion designs.
On, meanwhile, appears determined to defend its position. The company recently introduced the Cloudsurfer 3 platform, built around its new Surreal foam technology, which it describes as a major advancement for its performance running range. On has said the technology will play a role across future products.
Despite the competitive pressure, HOKA continues to post strong results. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, HOKA revenue rose 14.5 percent year over year to $671.2 million, helping drive record annual sales for Deckers. The company has pointed to international expansion and product innovation as core drivers of future growth.
Other analysts remain constructive on Deckers’ outlook. BNP Paribas has maintained an outperform rating on the company and suggested HOKA’s growth could exceed management’s guidance for the current quarter.
Evercore’s note points to a broader industry trend: as investors await Deckers’ earnings report, the race for runners is becoming increasingly competitive as established players and fast growing challengers compete for share in one of the footwear industry’s most attractive categories.
